月別アーカイブ: 2016年10月

Hillary’s private e-mail problem gives a big shock to stock prices and investors.

PublicDomainPictures / Pixabay

Dow Jones industrial average on October 28th ended at $ 18,161.19, which was 0.1 percent lower than one on October 27th. The cause of the decline is the news that the FBI started the re-investigation of the private e-mail problem of American presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Investor sentiment has worsened.

World market is not prepared for Trump winning.

Stock prices are greatly influenced by Hillary’s disadvantage (Trump’s advantage), because there are many investors who design a strategy based on Hillary advantage. Dow Jones industrial average had been propped up along the default route of Hillary’s superiority. You might have to prepare that Dow Jones industrial average plummets.

Don’t drop your guard until the American presidential election is over. Currently, support rate of Hillary is 46%. Also the one of Trump is 45%. The result of American presidential election is touch-and go.

【Polls Show Clinton Support Slipped After FBI Letter】
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-30/latest-polls-show-clinton-support-slipped-after-fbi-s-letter

Dow Jones industrial average is likely to fall.

In the chart, the shape of daily candle of Dow Jones industrial average is “piece” which has a set of long beards. It is difficult to expect whether Dow Jones industrial average goes up or down. However, following from two points of view, it is likely to fall.

1.75-day moving average line is becoming downward.
2.13-week moving average line has been holding the higher quotation.

Investor’s stance is “wait-and-see” for Nikkei Stock Average.

The Nikkei Stock Average of October 31st finished at 17,425.02 yen, which was 21.39 yen (0.12%) lower than one of October 28th. It took over the fall of Dow Jones industrial average.
Today’s topic I concerned is that financial results of Fanuc, which was announced after the Japanese market closed, was bad. Because Fanuc’s stock contribution is large for the Nikkei Stock Average, I would like to pay attention to how much impact Fanuc’s stock price gives to the investor sentiment.

Also click the following link to check the weekly investment schedule having various political and financial events.

Weekly Investment Schedule (October 31st ~)

Caution
The contents of this blog are written based on the personal opinions about Dow Jones industrial average, the Nikkei Stock Average, and the sentiment of short-term investors, medium-term investors, and long-term investors. With respect to the loss caused by investment based on the contents of the blog, I do not take any responsibility.

Thank you,

k-zma

Weekly Investment Schedule (October 31st ~)

ttreis / Pixabay

Weekly investment schedule is presented below.

Special Events

○FOMC results announcement in the USA on November 2th.
Probability of interest rate hike in November is very low. It is reasonable for FRB to determine whether to raise interest rates in December after checking the US employment statistics announced on November 4th.In addition, the American presidential election is on November 8th. If the interest rates rise before the presidential election, it were to cause confusion in the financial markets.

【Treasuries Yield Curve Steepens on Jobs Data as Fed Wagers Shift】
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-07/treasuries-rise-as-u-s-job-gains-trail-forecasts-in-september

○Results publication of the Monetary Policy Committee in United Kingdom on November 3rd.
The movement of the British pound should be paid attention. Just check how much influence the pound-yen exchange rate make to the dollar-yen exchange rate. Correlation of pound yen exchange rate and the dollar-yen exchange rate is very strong. In other words, if the pound weakens against the yen, the dollar weakens against the yen. Recently, the dollar-yen exchange rate is around $ 1 = 105 yen. However, the yen might strengthen against dollar, depending on the results publication of the Monetary Policy Committee in United Kingdom on November 3rd.

Moreover, Japanese market is closed on November 3rd. I think that it is November 3rd when foreign investors play a funny trick on the exchange rates.

○US employment statistics on November 4th.
US Employment statistics make a direct impact on the determination of interest rate hike in December. Pay attention to non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

The following is the details of the investment schedule.

October 31st

Japan:Industrial production index bulletin (September)
Japan:Construction machinery shipments (September)
Japan:Housing starts (September)
Japan:Announcement of financial results (From April to September): Shionogi, Eisai, Kobe Steel, TDK, Fanuc, Murata Manufacturing, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, JAL, TEPCO
Europe:GDP preliminary estimate (July-September quarter), CPI bulletin (October)
US:Personal Income, Personal Consumption Expenditure

November 1st

Japan:The results of the Bank of Japan meeting, outlook report
Japan:President Kuroda conference
Japan:Announcement of financial results (From April to September): Nippon Meat Packers, Asahi, Nippon Steel Sumitomo Metals, Sumitomo electricity, NTN, Sharp, Sony, Sumitomo Corporation, KDDI
China:Manufacturing, non-manufacturing industries, goods new manufacturing PMI (October)
Australia:The results announcement of Board of Directors
US:ISM manufacturing business confidence index (October)

November 2nd

Japan:Consumption Survey (October)
Japan:UNIQLO Japan sales announcement (October)
Japan:Announcement of financial results (From April to September):Japan paper, Renesas, Mazda, Fuji Heavy Industries, Olympus, Itochu, Mitsui & Co., Ltd., NTT data
US:ADP employment report (May 10)
US:FOMC result announcement

November 3rd

Japan:Culture Day, the Japanese market closed on Thursday
United Kingdom:Results publishment of Monetary Policy Committee
US:Labor productivity index preliminary (July-September quarter)
US:ISM non-manufacturing business confidence index (October)
US:Factory orders (September)
US:Announcement of financial results (July-September quarter): Credit Suisse, Societe Generale, Starbucks

November 4th

Japan:Checking account factors affecting prospects (November)
Japan:Announcement of financial results(January to September): The Lion, Uni-Charm
Japan:Announcement of financial results(April to September): DeNA over, Nisshin steel HD, Hitachi structure, Suzuki, Marubeni Corporation, Mitsubishi Corporation, Marui G
Australia:Retail sales (September)
US:Employment statistics (October)
US:Trade balance (September)

Caution
The contents of this blog are written based on the personal opinions. With respect to the loss caused by investment based on the contents of this blog, I do not take any responsibility.

Thank you,

k-zma

Pay extra attention to the sharp fall in Dow Jones industrial average.

tadah / Pixabay

Today’s Dow Jones industrial average was finished at $ 18169.68, which was $ 29.65 (0.2%) lower than yesterday’s one. There were two factors that made Dow Jones industrial average lower.

1.Each financial result for the American companies hasn’t been beyond the expectations of investors.
2.The result of the US presidential election on November 8th is uncertain.

After Dow Jones industrial average is under 18,000 dollars, the stock price will rapidly go down.

The Daily candle chart of Dow Jones industrial average has put a positive line. But , it is likely that Dow Jones industrial average will fall, because the higher quotation has been dropped off. In addition, 25-day moving average line, the 13-week moving average line, and reference line of Ichimoku balance table functions as a resistance line. Although Dow Jones industrial average moves in the range between $ 18,000 and $ 18,250, it is likely to decline.

Nikkei Stock Average steadily rises, but the higher quotation might be suppressed by profit-taking.

Today’s Nikkei Stock Average was approaching at 17,448.25 yen, which was 111.83 yen (0.6%) higher than yesterday’s one. Factor of the rise is the improvement of investor sentiment with respect to depreciation of the yen against the dollar in foreign currency exchange rates and the financial-related companies.

Intensified US interest rate hike causes depreciation of the yen against the dollar. It has been put on  $ 1 = 105 yen. American interest rate hike grows, because new jobless claims of the United States was 258,000 and decreased 3000 compared to those of the previous week.

In addition, investor sentiment was improved like ” The financial results of financial-related companies were not worse than they thought “, although stock prices of financial companies, especially Deutsche Bank, had been sluggish

Europe’s Top Trading Firms Have Good News as Revenue Jumps
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/europe-s-top-trading-firms-have-some-good-news-as-revenue-jumps

Caution
The contents of this blog are written based on the personal opinions about Dow Jones industrial average, the Nikkei Stock Average,and the sentiment of short-term investors, medium-term investors, and long-term investors. With respect to the loss caused by investment based on the contents of the blog, I do not take any responsibility.

Thank you,

k-zma

Tommorow’s Nikkei Stock Average might fall.

Unsplash / Pixabay

Today’s Nikkei Stock Average finished at 17,336.42 yen, which is 55.42 yen (0.32%) lower than yesterday’s one. The Nikkei Stock Average has fallen because of the sell-adjustment due to the sharp rise in these days. Although it is early phase of the earnings announcement season, but the Nikkei Stock Average seems to show the underlying strength.

In addition, if you look at “buying and selling trends by every investor” announced today, you can find that the amount of stock bought by foreign investors is larger than that of stock sold by them three weeks in a row. It is very favorable that The foreign investors is gradually returning to the Japanese market.

Tomorrow’s Nikkei Stock Average might fell by the sell-adjustment.

I guess that tomorrow’s Nikkei Stock Average might fall due to the sell-adjustment and weekend factor. And also pay attention to “up-down ratio”. Currently, up-down ratio (25 days) is 144.69. It means that Nikkei Stock Average is too expensive. Tomorrow, the Nikkei Stock Average might fall.

Don’t be a gambler.

Each company’s earnings announcement has been in full swing. You might think that there is a chance to get much profit because of high volatility of stock prices. But please don’t be a gambler. You should check investment schedule carefully.

Caution
The contents of this blog are written based on the personal opinions about Dow Jones industrial average, the Nikkei Stock Average,and the sentiment of short-term investors, medium-term investors, and long-term investors. With respect to the loss caused by investment based on the contents of the blog, I do not take any responsibility.

Thank you,

k-zma

Dow Jones industrial average continues to be unstable.

OpenClipart-Vectors / Pixabay

Today’s Dow Jones industrial average was finished at $ 18,199.33, which was $ 30.06 (0.2%) higher than yesterday’s one. Although Dow Jones industrial average rose, the movements of it continue to be unstable. There are three reasons of the lack of the stability.

  1. Stock price fluctuation caused by earnings announcement of each company. For example, Apple’s stock price declined and Boeing’s stock price rose.
  2. The fluctuation of futures prices for crude oil WTI
  3. Back-and-forth of American interest rate expectation

Be careful of the American interest rate hike.

Until December of the FOMC, I think that there are lots of various news about the American interest rate hike. “Gradual rise in interest rate” is the default route, but most of the people shown up on the news will be interviewed and make remarks in their own interests. With that in your mind, you need to catch up the news. Already, the expectation “Two rate increases in 2017, three in 2018 ” has shown up.

【BlackRock’s Rieder Sure of December Fed Hike as Treasuries Fall】
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-26/treasuries-fall-as-blackrock-s-rieder-sees-fed-hike-in-december

Fluctuation in the Nikkei average stock price by the earnings announcements will continue still.

Today’s Nikkei Stock Average was approaching at 17,346 yen, which was 45 yen lower than yesterday’s one. Opening price of Nikkei Stock Average has fallen because the stocks of Canon and Nintendo, which had the earnings announcement yesterday, were sold. Please do not simply think the reasons why the stocks of Canon and Nintendo fell down are that the earnings forecast became low and expectation of next profit was down. After all, the important  point is “ how most investors feel about the downward revision and decline expectation. Even in the case of the downward revision and decline expectation, there is possibility that stock prices rise.

Don’t be a gambler.

Each company’s earnings announcement has been in full swing. You might think that there is a chance to get much profit because of high volatility of stock prices. But please don’t be a gambler. You should check investment schedule carefully.

Caution
The contents of this blog are written based on the personal opinions about Dow Jones industrial average, the Nikkei Stock Average,and the sentiment of short-term investors, medium-term investors, and long-term investors. With respect to the loss caused by investment based on the contents of the blog, I do not take any responsibility.

Thank you,

k-zma