The Nikkei Stock Average on November 15 finishted at 17,768.15 yen, which was 4.47 yen(0.03%) lower than that on the previous day. It can be said that the momentum of the rise of the Nikkei Stock Average and the pressure of the selling- adjustment were balanced. The trading value was estimated 2,586.8 billion yen. Still, the momentum of the rise of the Nikkei Stock Average is really strong.
The momentum of the rise in stock price is due to the rise of megabank stock prices. The rise in the American interest rates due to Trump politic has led to the rise of the megabank stock prices. The final profit decline of the three megabanks did not significantly affect investor’s sentiment.
The reason for the adjustment selling is that the dollar depreciated against the yen in the exchange rate. I think that correction to the depreciation of the yen had occurred.
Recently, the Nikkei Stock Average is suddenly rising, and in the exchange rate the yen plummets too much. The Nikkei Average stock price today and the exchange rate seemed to take a “small pause”.
The Nikkei Stock Average take a small pause, but the momentum of the rise continues.
In the daily chart, the Nikkei Stock Average was placing a cross line. Generally, it is said that the cross line represents “an unsettled mood”, by which we can’t know whether the stock price will rise or fall. However, if you look at the movement of the Nikkei Stock Average so far, the cross line in this case is highly likely to be an adjustment sign for a sharp rise of the Nikkei Stock Average. Unless something big happens, I think that the Nikkei Stock Average will rise again, waiting for the 5-day moving average line to come closer.
Next investor’s attention is on interest rate hike in December.
In this week, I guess that Jones industrial average will slightly fluctuate, because news about the interest rate hike in December might be reported. Let’s check the weekly investment schedule frequently. Some lectures and a congressional testimony by FRB top officials are scheduled.
Nonetheless, the expectation that the interest rate hike will be determined at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on December 13 and 14 has been already included into the world market. Even if FRB top officials imply the interest rate hike in December, the impact to the world market is considered to be limited.
【WSJ Survey: Most Economists See Fed Raising Rates in December, In Wake of Trump’s Election】
We should continue to focus on changes of investor’s sentiment and stock price fluctuations.
The contents of this blog are written based on the personal opinions about Dow Jones industrial average, the Nikkei Stock Average, and the sentiment of short-term investors, medium-term investors, and long-term investors. With respect to the loss caused by investment based on the contents of the blog, I do not take any responsibility.