Jones industrial average on November 15th finished at $ 18923.06, which was $ 54.37(0.3%) higher than that on the previous day. Record highs on a closing price basis are updated for 4 consecutive business days in a row. The main factors of the rise of Jones industrial average are the following two points.
1. Continuation of Trump effect due to high expectations for Trump’s plans.
2. Investor’s expectation for oil production reduction agreement on OPEC.
【Torrent of Cash Flowing to U.S. Stocks Abandons Lockstep Moves】
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-15/s-p-500-futures-inch-ahead-as-investors-speculate-on-trump-plans
【Oil Jumps Most in Seven Months as OPEC Members Seen Pushing Deal】
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-15/oil-rebounds-from-8-week-low-as-opec-said-to-work-to-secure-deal
What we need pay attention to is the investor’s expectation for the OPEC reduction production agreement. The news on production reduction agreement has been running for the past 6 months, but it is so uncertain. Special care is required for concerning factors that are uncertain and easily affect stock prices.
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Today’s Nikkei average stock price is likely to rise as well. Following the rise of Jones industrial average, the Nikkei Stock Average futures CME (yen denominated) also finished at 17,900 yen. And also, the exchange rate fluctuates to the yen depreciation against the dollar. If the dollar keeps 109 yen while Japanese markets open, it will be a strong boost to the rise of the Nikkei Stock Average.
【Dollar Extends Post-Election Advance Versus Yen on Retail Sales】
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-15/dollar-falls-from-5-month-high-versus-yen-on-view-gain-too-fast
Next investor’s attention is on interest rate hike in December.
In this week, I guess that Jones industrial average will slightly fluctuate, because news about the interest rate hike in December might be reported. Let’s check the weekly investment schedule frequently. Some lectures and a congressional testimony by FRB top officials are scheduled.
Weekly Investment Schedule (November 14th ～)
Nonetheless, the expectation that the interest rate hike will be determined at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on December 13 and 14 has been already included into the world market. Even if FRB top officials imply the interest rate hike in December, the impact to the world market is considered to be limited.
【WSJ Survey: Most Economists See Fed Raising Rates in December, In Wake of Trump’s Election】
http://jp.wsj.com/articles/SB10043214266851864327604582436430543411506
We should continue to focus on changes of investor’s sentiment and stock price fluctuations.
Caution
The contents of this blog are written based on the personal opinions about Dow Jones industrial average, the Nikkei Stock Average, and the sentiment of short-term investors, medium-term investors, and long-term investors. With respect to the loss caused by investment based on the contents of the blog, I do not take any responsibility.
Thank you,
k-zma
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