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Will the Nikkei Stock Average take a “small pause” like Jones industrial average at Trump market?

pepperminting / Pixabay

Jones industrial average on November 16th finished at $ 18868.14, which was 54.92 (0.3%) lower than that on the precious day. Jones industrial average suddenly rises too much. The stock prices continued to rise for 7 consecutive business days in a row. I think that selling adjustment of the profit fixing was once happened to the bank-related stock prices which had been rapidly rising.

【S&P 500 Retreats as Post-Election Rally Shows Signs of Fatigue】
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-16/u-s-index-futures-little-changed-as-investors-assess-trump-gain

The probability that the rise of t today’s Nikkei Stock Average will also be adjusted like that of Jones industrial average

In a daily chart, Jones industrial average has a negative line, but the upward trend will continue still. Although Jones industrial average fell compared to that of the previous day, it has received the support of the rise by the 5-day moving average line. Also, the 50-day moving average line and the 75-day moving average line seem to be golden-crossed. I think that selling adjustment will happen once for Jones industrial average, but there is a high possibility that it will continue to rise.

It is highly likely that the Nikkei Stock Average on November 17th will be pushed down by selling adjustment. Like the American market, the stock prices of the bank might decline. We also need to pay close attention to selling adjustment of the stock prices of export related companies. The exchange rate has fluctuated to the dollar depreciation against the yen at 1 dollar = 108 yen level.

Next investor’s attention is on interest rate hike in December.

In this week, I guess that Jones industrial average will slightly fluctuate, because news about the interest rate hike in December might be reported. Let’s check the weekly investment schedule frequently. Some lectures and a congressional testimony by FRB top officials are scheduled.

Weekly Investment Schedule (November 14th ~)

Nonetheless, the expectation that the interest rate hike will be determined at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on December 13 and 14 has been already included into the world market. Even if FRB top officials imply the interest rate hike in December, the impact to the world market is considered to be limited.

【WSJ Survey: Most Economists See Fed Raising Rates in December, In Wake of Trump’s Election】
http://jp.wsj.com/articles/SB10043214266851864327604582436430543411506

We should continue to focus on changes of investor’s sentiment and stock price fluctuations.

Caution
The contents of this blog are written based on the personal opinions about Dow Jones industrial average, the Nikkei Stock Average, and the sentiment of short-term investors, medium-term investors, and long-term investors. With respect to the loss caused by investment based on the contents of the blog, I do not take any responsibility.

Thank you,

k-zma

Nikkei Stock Average supported by depreciated yen @ Trump market.

geralt / Pixabay

The Nikkei Stock Average on November 16 finished at 17,862.21 yen, which was 194.6 yen(1.1%) higher than that on the previous day. There were two factors of the rise of the Nikkei Stock Average.

1. As the American interest rate rose, the exchange rate fell to the yen against the dollar and the stock price of export related companies rose.
2. As the long-term interest rate in Japan rose, the stock prices of banks rose.

【Asian Shares: Japanese Banks Rise Sharply】
http://www.wsj.com/articles/asian-shares-japanese-banks-rise-sharply-1479265191

How long will the yen’s depreciation against the dollar continue?

As for the exchange rate, 1 dollar = 110 yen has come into view. However, you should not forget that the next American president Trump might insist on “dollar depreciation”. Actually, Trump tried to insist on “dollar depreciation” in the television debate of the American presidential election. When “the yen appreciates the dollar weak” remarks, I think that the exchange rate will fluctuate to the dollar depreciation against the yen at a stretch.

Mechanism of the yen depreciation against the dollar @ Trump market.

The mechanism of the yen depreciation against the dollar in the Trump market is as follows.

1. Trump politic leads to tax cut & infrastructure investment.
2. As issuance of government bonds in the US is expected, interest rates are rising.
3. Meanwhile, the bank of Japan will continue the zero interest rate policy with the adjustment of the yield curve.
4. The difference of interest rates between the US and Japan will expand.
5. As selling the yen and buying the dollar proceeds, the exchange rate fluctuates to the yen depreciated against the dollar.

Attention is required to how far this mechanism continues. We do not know when Mr. Trump will refer to “dollar depreciation” policy.

The rise of the Nikkei Stock Average is caused by the rise of the mega bank’s stock price.

The trading value of the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange is estimated 2.856 trillion yen, which is approaching to 3 trillion yen, which can be said as a standard for large trading. The momentum of the rise of the Nikkei Stock Average is very strong. Especially, the momentum of the stock price rise of the banks is remarkable. In a trading price ranking, the 1st place is Mitsubishi UFJ, the 2nd place is Mitsui Sumitomo, and the 3rd place is Mizuho. It can be said that the stock price rise of the banks pushed up the Nikkei Stock Average.

Caution
The contents of this blog are written based on the personal opinions about Dow Jones industrial average, the Nikkei Stock Average, and the sentiment of short-term investors, medium-term investors, and long-term investors. With respect to the loss caused by investment based on the contents of the blog, I do not take any responsibility.

Thank you,

k-zma